How Pricing Really Works with Amy Hinton

In this episode, I sit down with Amy Hinton, North American Scrap Editor at Fastmarkets. We break down one of the most misunderstood parts of our industry. How prices actually work.

If you’ve ever questioned where scrap prices come from, how they’re formed, or whether the market is being “played”… this is the episode for you.

Amy pulls back the curtain on how price reporting agencies operate. From sourcing real transaction data to filtering out noise, bias, and market positioning. We dig into the mechanics behind pricing, but more importantly, what you as a scrappy should actually be paying attention to.

We also get into what really moves the market. From geopolitics and currency to supply and demand fundamentals and the often-overlooked role of psychology and sentiment.

In this episode, we talk about:

👉 Market psychology vs fundamentals
👉 Transactions vs bids vs offers
👉 TBD deals and index pricing
👉 What actually moves prices
👉 How pricing agencies work
👉 The hierarchy of data
👉 And much more!

This is a masterclass in understanding the forces behind the numbers, so you can make better decisions on the ground.

Born Scrappy.

Brought to you by Buddy.

The only marketplace and trade OS built for scrappies, by scrappies.



https://www.tradebuddy.io/

https://www.linkedin.com/company/tradewithbuddy/



WHO IS STU KAGAN ANYWAYS?

27 years in the metal recycling game and still learning and growing…

I learnt from the best and worked my way up from yard labourer to Executive Director of Trading and Operations for the largest metal recycler in sub-Saharan Africa. Responsible for 4,500 employees, 85 sites, and the overall profitability of a multi-billion dollar operation.

I brought my breadth and depth of knowledge to bear and co-founded the fastest growing, most-loved, and most awarded metal recycling company in New Zealand.

I thought it was time that tech worked for our industry, so I built THE killer scrap app, Buddy - built for scrappies, by scrappies.

Father of two crazy-awesome boys. Husband to Lisa. Kids rugby coach. YPO member. Founder. Lifelong learner. Mentee. Mentor. Committed Stoic. Aspiring cowboy.

COME SAY HI ON LINKEDIN

https://www.linkedin.com/in/stukagan/

https://www.linkedin.com/company/born-scrappy/

https://www.linkedin.com/company/tradewithbuddy

Transcript

Welcome Back, Amy!

How Prices Get Published

Data Hierarchy and Trust

Confirming Trades and Trust

The Manipulation Myth

What Moves Scrap Markets

Fundamentals vs Psychology

TBDs Explained

Are TBDs Selling Blind?

Monthly Price Formation

Buying Against Benchmarks

Transparency and Methodology

Assessments Versus Indexes

Handling Angry Calls

AI and the Next Decade

Getting to Know Amy (A Little More)

0:01

The scrap metal recycling industry has always run on hustle, trust, and sharp instincts. This is the podcast for traders and operators who want to get sharper without losing their scrappy edge. I'm Stu Kagan. Bringing you insights and stories from the people shaping the future of our industry. This is Born Scrappy. Hey Ames, how are you? I'm good. How are you? Yeah, I'm awesome. Thanks Amy. It's, uh, I'm excited to have you on and this is a, a very interesting topic for me and I think for a lot of other people. So, um, yeah, let's do this. Yes. Good to be back. Thank you for having me again. It's been a while, so it is nice. Feels like a nice sort homecoming addition for me, and I'll do my absolute best to give you some value. Absolutely. Look, you were super valuable last time, so, um, we do like having you on the show. We love it. So it does make the ending a little bit different because we can't ask you the normal, where's your favorite place to visit and things.'cause we already know all of that. So I'll throw in something different a little bit later. So, um, we'll, we'll catch you off guard there. Let's jump into the topic for today'cause it's masterclass season, so we're talking about adding some real value. This episode is called Demystifying Fast Markets, and what we're talking about here is making sure that the listeners and everybody in the industry understands how prices find you, where they come from, what moves these prices, what should we be looking out for, what should we be looking at? What should we. Not even care about. And when we were talking about this the other day, we couldn't think of anybody better. Um, so no pressure at all. But I think that's a topic you like. Uh, it's a very, a topic very, very close to my heart. Uh, first I think it's great this episode's called Demystifying Fast Markets because that is exactly the business that we are in. We are into demystifying all the markets. Um, so obviously very honored to be helping in that process. And that is very much the name of the game of what we do as a price reporting agency. Obviously I'm very pleased to have beaten out, uh, some of our competitors naming no names. To be top of your list. Uh, but appreciate that very much so. Yeah, of course. Like, let's, let's dive straight into it. Okay. So let's start with a simple, simple one to warm you up. Most of our, um, listeners and everybody in the industry are constantly checking prices, right? But often we don't even know how they're produced. So can you kind of walk us through step by step? What happens before the price gets published? Well, it's interesting that you mention how did the prices find us? And I would say that we are very much on the other side of finding those prices. You know, imagine a truffle hunter sniffing out information that's underground. That's us. And I did just compare myself to a pig. But in this instance, I'm quite happy with that parallel. Um, so obviously we operate under No, it's okay. I, I did the dirty work for you there, Stu. But no, we have a whole host of, uh, prices that are. Published on various frequencies and they are either assessed or calculated on various bases. So obviously, without getting too into the weeds with it, um, we operate under a hierarchy of data whereby a series of trained pricing analysts will be responsible for a given market and they will be responsible. For sniffing out the tradable level of any commodity that is trading at a given time per our methodology, um, to publish a price that is accurate and reflective of the market within that window, whether that's monthly. Um, I know we've talked a lot before about the monthly fares, scrap trade in the us. Uh, it could be daily for some liquid markets, you know, or P 10 20 premium, for example, in the Midwest is a daily price. Um, weekly. Fortnightly. So we're operating under a lot of frequencies across a lot of markets, and essentially we're aiming to speak to people on both the buy and the sell side of the deal. So traders, brokers, producers, consumers, and also looking from the upstream to the downstream as well. Although I would say that most of our information is sourced from upstream. Participants, but it's important not to negate those downstream original equipment manufacturers and other important conglomerates that buy into the pricing data and whose contractual levels we are informing with the work that we are doing. Uh, we operate under a hierarchy of data as well. Obviously we are looking at transactions, but also looking at bids, offers, assessments of the market. And obviously, you know, we'd start with a transaction would be, um, the most sort of valuable. Um. Or precise data point, I would say, based on the fact that it's an actual transaction, going down through that hierarchy to an assessment, which is more of an idea of general spot market activity. Um. Okay, so just to understand, we're talking about a hierarchy, which means at the top we want the best evidence possible that this is a true, accurate price, and that would be a concluded transaction that you have the visibility of. You can now see that transaction and you believe very strongly based on the fact that it is a confirmed trade, that this is a price in one of the prices in the market. What comes below that is that like. Phone calls hearsay. You know what? What's underneath it? Well, the success of our business really relies on the relationships that our teams are able to build with participants in the market. So, you know, we talk about the transaction obviously being the highest confidence data point, but there are hierarchies even within that stratum, the hierarchy of data. So, you know, obviously we'll be looking at market share. Based on participants that have the most sway and percentage of market share, we are looking at how reliable a given source is. Obviously we've got excellent relationships and we're very proud of those, and that's really what drives us. But uh, yeah, there are hierarchies within hierarchies, um, going from a transaction that maybe has weighting assigned to it as well, which gives you an indication of, you know, how much volume is being transacted at a certain level. Is it a one-off? Very small. Spot deal. Is it a huge cargo that's being sold? So there's obviously, you know, without getting into too much of the nitty gritty, there's hierarchy within that transaction data. Um, and then we do listen to market participants. You know, we've got relationships that we've built with regular sources that we canvas for information, depending on the frequency. But you know, we're very open with our methodologies and we. Would welcome feedback. It's very plain to go onto the Fast Markets website to read our methodologies. Anything that's published, you know, there will be contact information for the relevant teams. So we get information that comes from our regular guys, as it were. And we are also open to taking market feedback at any point. There's no formal process to it, so you know, I would say the onus is on. The fast markets representative to really put the legwork in. Um, but we certainly don't turn people away for giving us, uh, feedback and information. Yeah. Okay. So, um, don't worry. Every single one of these questions will not have 10 questions about that question. This is just,'cause I think this kind of sets the scene as the most important part. When you say you get a transaction, does somebody actually send you through a purchase order? How do you confirm a transaction? It has been done. Um, it is certainly by no means a prerequisite of, of talking to, um, any of our reporters. Um, people do send purchase orders. Uh, by and large, a lot of the operational aspect of the reporting is. Done on trust and relationships that are developed when we obviously have, again, our, my new favorite word, the hierarchy within that of people that we know are reliable or active in the market that we are talking to regularly, and which also forms a basis for comparison, right? So we are looking at things that are happening. You know, if you've been entrenched in a market for a number of years, you are able to. Compare and contrast information that you've received previously from various sources. And there's integrity on both sides, right? So we obviously look to assess the integrity of the data, but we also have to act with that integrity. And a lot of that, um, involves a level of discretion and making sure that people can trust that the information is treated impartially, and that we are giving them the due respect of being confidential with their data. I don't doubt, um, the impartiality, I don't doubt that part. How do you know who to trust? How do you know somebody isn't just pushing the price up and it's like, oh, I got 325 where they actually only got three 15 per metric tunnel per gross ton and that was just'cause they want the price to go up or the mills wanted to go down. Well that's, that's sort of a basic function, isn't it? If you're looking at the participants on any side of a deal, you know, people that would have a vested interest in the market moving one way or another. Um, I'm sure that that does happen, but we have very skilled reporters that are able to weigh that data against other points and that are obviously able to weed out, you know, something that looks slightly anomalous. Um, you know, so that's all part of the process and we have very robust checks and balances for compliance purposes to make sure that, um, there will be multiple numbers of eyes that have passed that information before it's published. It's all part of the process. It's a huge part of the process actually, and obviously we're aware, um, that people have a vested interest in the markets moving one way or another. Forms part of the training that people undertake when they join us. Yeah. So lastly on this then, I guess I've only been in the US for just over a year now, and I constantly hear from the different metal recyclers that the market is manipulated, right? For them it makes it hard'cause they're buying against it, which we'll delve into a little bit later. But what are they misunderstanding then for everybody to just say, wow, this month didn't go my way. So the market must have been manipulated by the, by the mills or whatever it is. What are they missing? Oh, I think the M word is one that we certainly don't use because it's got a very strong connotation. You know, that's a criminal offense. So I certainly wouldn't be throwing, let's moderate that language stew to people that are, let's say, maybe trying to control the, in one way or the other. I can't, um, it's a difficult, you're right, you're right. I think, I think manipulated is not by yourselves. I think what they mean is manipulated is if I'm the mill. I'm gonna give you a different price, and if I give you 10 different prices, um, all substantially lower, that is a manipulation. Let's not use the M word, but it is somebody swaying the pricing to benefit them. Let, let's rather explain it like that, and what I'm asking is how are they wrong? I don't think it's that uncommon for people to maybe either give a weighted average of their deals or to select or cherry pick deals that, and again, I'm not talking about fast markets per se. I'm talking in a general sense of an individual that was. Reporting into A PRA. Obviously nobody's reporting into a PRA for the love of the, you know, they, I'm sure there are many people that absolutely love talking to me, Stu, and there will be people on the other side of that fence that can't wait to see the back of me at the end of every month. Um, you know, if an individual outfit is, you know, reporting into a PRA, it's. Unlikely that they're doing it out of benevolence. There's a vested interest in reporting because in the best case scenario one would hope that they're reporting in to keep prices accurate so that we can all be operating in a fair and equitable space. Um, so I'm sure that there would be an argument to say that people could. Report either towards the higher end if they're trying to, um, bolster the market or to do the inverse if they have a vested interest in maybe buying at a lower level. Uh, but again, the checks and balances that we have in place mean that we are able to wait the volume of data that we receive to compare and controls data points and to weed out anything that looks anomalous. And obviously by virtue of what you've just said, um, we're very well trained to know that. There will be participants that want the market to move in one way or the other. So we've got to be very mindful that we're calibrating a fair tradable level based on all of the information that we are receiving. But it's a really good question and it's obviously something that just logically, even without the bounds of, you know, forget fast markets, it is just a human tendency to feather one's own nest, isn't there? So, of course that's something that one would look to weed out as in data, as in life. So it's just a one of the many fascinating elements to the job. I, I just want to come in and say very. Openly that you are not here reporting on necessarily what FO markets does. I'm asking you as a PRA, how do these things happen, right? So when I'm saying people are trying to manipulate, also you threw the acronym PRA outside. I'm gonna just explain. It's a price rating agency. Uh, price reporting. Price reporting agency. Sorry. So that would be the likes of post markets. So that would be, um, a PRA is where indexes are found, basically, right? Yeah. Where you find your indices. And if you'll permit me the joke, um, Stu, maybe I would come out with a, a price rating agent. See, I could go round giving, you know, C minus must try harder or a excellent deal. So there you go. Maybe that's our next business endeavor. Um, but yes, it's a price reporting agency. We have lots of facets to the business, but the primary function is the reporting of commodities that, uh, you know. A fair tradable level, an accurate tradable level at any given time. We're very much an ancillary and auxiliary function, very much not part of the market, which I think sometimes people get a little bit twisted to use the modern vernacular. Alright, let's see what moves the markets? So let's start discussing less about post markets, more about the actual market itself. You know, a metal recycler io used to run many yards. I wake up in the morning, it's Monday morning, and the prices have completely changed. What are the things that you think immediately are causing that? What should I be watching? You know, I always say to people, be careful of the weekends, right? Because in America you come in and the rest of the world has already had Monday. Mm-hmm. You come in on Monday and that market is moved. So I used to always say, hedge everything. Sell everything on a Friday. Make sure when you come in and you cover, so what are the things that they should be watching? Well, I would say to start with probably the news, obviously that's what you come to us for, but it's a very broad question, a very good question because there are so many micro and macro factors that can be affecting the markets. You know, obviously geopolitics is a huge thing that moves the needle. You know, the situation with the US and Iran for example, um, is having huge implications for lots of markets. Based on the impact that it's having on freight concerns over oil. Um, although I think from a US perspective, there's only about sort of 2% of the US oil comes from the Middle East. It's a more of a concern for other jurisdictions, but geopolitics. Um, and that all has a knock on effect a lot of the time on currency. Um, I know we've talked previously about how Turkey really moves the export needle for, um, US various exporters in particular. Um, you know, looking at how the lira affects competitiveness and the ability for certain. Exporters to operate in certain currency pairings. Um, it would probably be a shorter list as to say sort of what doesn't move the needle, but, you know, basic supply and demand fundamentals, um, would be a baseline that I would say it's very important to know your customer. From my days in compliance, KYC was a big thing, knowing your customer, knowing their profile, and obviously how supply and demand, um, fits into that. But there, there are so many facets that, um. That you could really look at. But I would say to anybody, really, somebody asked me recently, you know, what's the first thing you do in the morning? I'm like, watch the news. Really. Like, you know, but come on. Okay, hold on, hold on names, watch the news. What are you watching? Which news? Like, it depends on who's putting out the news. You know, that depends on what you hear. Well, that's another great question actually. That's something that can be very US specific as well. I've noticed there's a, you know, obviously I'm born and bred on the BBC, which is, you know, supposedly unbiased. Um, and then you come over to the us I know I say that with a sort of supposedly by a coup raised eyebrow. They themselves. So, but, and then you come to the US and the news here is a lot more bombastic. You know, you've got CNN, you've got Fox, it seems a lot more divisive. You know, the US is a sort of larger than life plays, which is great in many ways. So the point I'm trying to make is that you should take your news from diverse sources, but I'd probably be most likely to start with Bloomberg. Something along those lines, just to. If not impartial, to make sure that it drills down into kind of the real financial and market aspect of the news rather than looking at sort of the partisan factors that can sometimes come along with reporting of really sensitive issues. You know, obviously we are living in very turbulent geopolitical times. I feel like that's a fairly relevant statement. So let's understand one other thing here on pricing. How much of it is actually fundamentals and how much of it are we talking about psychology, especially in the domestic market, like there's sentiments that go out there, which moves the market. What do you see playing more of a role? I think if we were to take the us um, farer scrap market as an example, I would say that obviously the fundamentals underpin everything, but there's a huge psychological element. Um, and I feel like you could. Really apply that to trading of any sort because there's a lot of psychology. That goes into the art of making a trade or conversely not making a trade. Something that we've seen, um, probably since the beginning of Trump's second term in office, is the turbulence and the speed at which things have been rolled out in terms of tariffs, the way that things have been ran upon, and, you know, the timelines of these decisions. It makes it very hard for people to actually operate within a space. So that has. Led to some sort of trading inertia in lots of instances. If we look at what happened in the copper markets last year when we were sort of waiting and waiting and expecting a huge decision on tariffs on. Copper and, and copper scrap, and then things that never materialized. And all the while you've got the arbitrage between Comex and LME just doing this and people not really knowing how to navigate that space. I think psychology, just by virtue of what trading is, plays a huge. Part in that process, the, the fundamentals and the macro, they can inform you and they do inform you on the shape of things, but really it's how you respond to that, that forms what actually happens because it's that psychology that will determine the action that's taken based on the information that one has at any given time. And let's understand the monthly pricing. So. How much leverage and, and as I'll say again, both of us are newish to the US or, or not from the us. How much leverage will take me away. Yeah, exactly. We don't have an accent. They have accents. Exactly. Um, how much leverage do the mills actually have when they're shaping the monthly market prices? You know, versus, or people assume. People assume the steel mills here can make the price whatever they want and they can get away with it. No, not so. So a lot of that has to do with market direction, right? Being a buyer's or a seller's market. So typically, if it's, uh, a market where demand is subdued, um, appetites aren't particularly good. You know, obviously that would be classified as a buyer's market. So on the mill side, they may drag their feet on their market entrance, make dealers wait. Um, to go back to your point about psychology, that can impact the psychology of the sellers, maybe destabilize their position, um, if they're sort of being hung out to dry, for want of a better term, in anticipation of a, a buy offer from the mills. Um, but it works in reverse if it's a hot market, if demand is good and outweighs. A supply, in that case, it's a seller's market and you know, mills would maybe want to get ahead of that with an earlier entrance into the monthly trade. So obviously there's a sense that, um, with the consolidation that we've seen over a period of time, that there are mill groups within the US that have a lot of sway in the market, that they can't really negate the basic. Supply and demand fundamental? Well, they can to a degree because a lot of them are integrated now with their own scrap yards. But there will still be times where, um, you know, they're required to come to the open spot market and depending on, um, the direction that that market is taking, whether it's hot and it's taking off, or whether it's in the doldrums or on ice. I'm trying to think of like things that I've written over the years of like markets being on ice or being like a runaway train. That all informs part of the psychology. The form that these things can take. But I, I think it's very oversimplified to think that mills are purely in control of the situation. They definitely have a lot of power, but nobody is exempt from the Wild West Supply, west demand. That is the US uh, scrap market. Alright. Talk us through TBDs quickly. Give us. For those that dunno what that is, just explain it very simply so that I can ask a question about that. I feel like there was a time where nobody knew what A TBD was, and now it's like Pandora's box. Now we've opened the lid on the dreaded TBD, um, that the lid, it would just will not go back on and so well internationally, no one knows what it is. And I dunno how it would fly in many other countries. So just talk us through TBDs. Maybe we start a new, maybe we start a new trend and start rolling out TBDs to other Jewish TBDs globally. As long as I don't have to go and get involved in Global TBDs, I don't mind. So it's an acronym that stands for to be determined and essentially because the fair scrap trade is broadly the first. For 10 days, give or take of each month where mills are securing their raw materials requirements to fulfill their orders for the rest of that month. Um, you know, while that negotiation is going on, it's very difficult and costly to down tools and have people stop shipping, um, on their agreements. So typically Mills will come out and say there'll be in a to be determined agreement with their suppliers and they will agree to pay what is published by. Fast markets a MM, um, for the most part as we are the benchmark in that market. So it's just a handy tool that allows people to keep shipping. Um, it means that nobody loses any margin by having to stop the flows of material. And it should, in theory, allow everybody to continue with their BAU with minimal disruption at pay a price to their suppliers. That is to be determined based on the settlement date. Okay, let me have my 2 cents. So this means that for a third of the month, metal recyclers in the US sell for an unknown price. I would refute the simplification there, Stu. All it means is that while people are negotiating, they can keep material flowing, um, and continue because they're active in negotiations, right? So I could come to you and say, Stu, I will buy your heavy melts. But I want to buy it for a dollar and then you would quite rightly cut me off to an asylum. Your characterization works on the proviso that nobody's actively negotiating, which is very much not the case. And you know, obviously I would come up on record and say that we are just. Uh, reporting the numbers that participants that are actively involved in those negotiations tell us, um, and we crunch the numbers and then we come up with the price every month. But I'd wouldn't want that level of power uneasy, uh, sleeps ahead, that wears the crown, and I do not want a crown made of, uh, heavy melt. Too much responsibility. Look, I, I dis simplified. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. It's a very good, it's a very good, and obviously I'm not casting as versions on you at all because I think sometimes it's good to take the more simplified view of things that sometimes people genuinely hold. Um, and maybe to demystify it, just to bring it back to the original thrust of what we were trying to do here today. Oh, I don't go back on what I just said. I still believe what I said is absolutely 100% true. I mean, I negotiated some massive agreements when we were in South Africa. We used to do our monthly agreements, but we would go on the 25th of the previous month and we would start negotiating for what it would be from the first. And what would happen to us is, and we also had huge volumes, right? So we needed to constantly supply, but we had maybe. Five mills that we could have sent it to at any time. If on the first we didn't have an agreement with one of the mills, though that mill didn't get any supply, it might have, might have had one on the 10th, but only once we had agreed on a price. So I am simplifying it as if there is a solution like, Hey, just go negotiate on the 25th. I'm not making it that simple, but I am saying that from an outsider looking in. It, it is pretty tough to wrap your head around. I understand why it's done, but, um, yeah, I, I would struggle to be a supplier in this market. Well, there's also other considerations that obviously go into it too that obviously we are not party to, um, in terms of the process, but the onus is on the consumer to check in with the suppliers to, um, validate tonnage. I don't think for one minute, and I should clarify, people aren't just saying, well, just leave it up to the team at. Fast markets, a MM and, um, they'll tell us when they're, when they're ready. There's obviously a lot more that goes into people determining their tonnage. You know, some people will come out with pricing that will have absolutely nothing to do with TBDs, but that's just a general function of the way that some markets have chosen to function for simplicity. So let me understand on these. Um. On these monthly prices. If, for example, I am SA selling a huge amount of volume and I get$350, right? But then the smaller suppliers in the area are gonna be getting three 40 or 3 35, hopefully not three 30, but in that region, what do you then show as the price for the month? A lot of things would depend on, as we talked about previously, like the, the volume that's being sold. You know, if there's a, a participant that's a dealer that has a lion's share of that market and they've got an overwhelming price at X and they've got tonnage against it, you know, obviously logically that would, you know, probably formulate a bigger part of any average versus a much smaller participant that has, you know, a lot less to sell. So is it an average, is it a weighted average? There's no, obviously there's, you know, I can't speak to the exact, um,'cause it will vary as well based on the information that is received on each month. So I couldn't speak for fast markets per se on this, but there's no hard and fast rule that says, you know, this is a weighted average because these are all assessments that will use editorial judgment, um, in their formulation. Versus an index, for example, that would be calculated using a, a formula and that would, you know, spit out a weighted figure based on the inputs. You know, there's a lot that goes into it. Um, in terms of, you know, we've talked about data hierarchy. We've talked about a trust. Trust is huge in any kind of business relationships that you've built with people. It's why I'm always very confident for our place in the market in an age of AI because there will be a lot of things that a computer can't replicate, that a relationship that's been, you know, built over time will be able to achieve. Amy, I'm gonna double click on here because I'm not sure if it is about the relationship if, and I don't have an answer, right? I dunno what the answer should be. Like if, say, supply 75% of the material and the 25% of the value of the leftover comes from 25 suppliers. I don't know, um, what price you should be showing, but where it gets super, super tricky is. When middle recyclers are back to backing their purchases with their sales against the fast market prices. So FO Market comes out at three 50 because SA was at three 50, but I'm buying against the three 50 because that's the price FO market put out. That's a really tough situation. Now, this is not a go at fast market. I understand There's no solution. I understand there's nothing that's perfect because if you put out the lowest price, well that doesn't make any sense either. So, and. You could put an average, but then is it a weighted average? Like how do you take that into consideration? How do you think, what do you think about when I say that? I feel like what I think about when I say that is, you know, going to sound a little bit harsh, but referring to my previous point of us being an auxiliary function of the market, um, that's very much not our concern. That's when the person making the deal needs. To know what, and again, I'm not talking about you Stu, per se, but when Yeah, yeah, for sure. When one is making a deal, that's the consideration that needs to be factored into negotiations as we've got absolutely no control over that or how people are utilizing those numbers. Obviously we are well aware that people buy and sell off of those numbers, and if an individual gets picked off in their negotiation with the consumer and comes in below the level that we are reporting that's gonna function that we can't control, um. As much as we can't control the fact that, um, somebody may be squeezed on one or other side of the deal based on where the market is set and what their buyer and seller agreements look like. So I feel like, you know, I don't want to seem harsh or uncaring. Um, but while I can sympathize on a personal level, that's not something that I can control. Nor should anybody in our line of work be trying to control its accuracy is the name of our game. Um, you know, and once we know that we have. Published a number in any given, um, commodity market that is a fair tradable level at any given time. That's where our involvement in that process stops. Obviously, we will always take feedback based on people that think that the, um, the market is, we get the word unfair a lot, and that's really not, you know, we'll take feedback. If there's something that has been published that maybe was the wrong decision, we'll take full accountability. Um, but we're chasing that accuracy, and that's where our involvement in that process stops. So the onus is on the trader or whatever participant that's using those numbers to make sure that they're on the right side of things. I, I'm currently hearing every person that's ever said this to me, saying the same thing, right? And let me tell you what they say. They're saying that it would be easier. If you actually told them how you got to the price. Now, I'm not saying you can't do this. Remember, we are just having a conversation. It's not about fast markets. It's not about me, not about how do they have visibility of, well, the number we put out is based on a weighted average, or the number we put out is based on the highest price that we've taken, or$5, because we realize not everybody can, how do they have access to that? Because when you are buying. It's really hard to go back to your supplier and say, this month didn't go my way. I'm getting lower than what fast market is reporting, so therefore I need to change your price. They don't really accept that that's not gonna go down well and you're gonna lose that account very quickly. So took me through the ability for them to get some form of visibility of how the price is calculated. I feel like our methodology is very clear and it's published on our website. It is openly available. Anybody that's participating or even non-subscribers, you know, people will be potentially doing business with people that don't subscribe to Far Market. So our methodology are all publicly available and they will give you, um, the parameters of the material specifications, delivery window, currency, um. Frequency of publication and they will give you all of the information that informs the parameters for data that we're able to take. And then the individual that will be reporting on or analyzing that market will know the market very well, the participants market share fundamentals that move that market. And you know, taking into account data that's received in line with that methodological specification. And knowledge of the market will inform, um, the calibration of the price. And we are, we are very transparent. We're very open to feedback and we will share. Anybody that wants to talk to us in as much as it doesn't affect, um, the confidentiality of data that we receive. And, um, it probably sounds a little bit like I'm sort of saying, well, you know, tough. But I do think there's a lot of information that's publicly available and we are very open, um, unlike some of our competitors. We give the market, um, free access to our reporting staff, so we will. Work with people as much as possible, but in reality there's nothing more that we can do on that side of things. I certainly know that it's happened where people report or they agree to something that comes in under, um, more than likely than over. I'll publish numbers, but you know, again, that's not a conversation that we're able to have, you know, that's obviously between the dealer and their buyer or you know, vice, vice versa. So that's not something that we can take a position on and nor should we for impartiality purposes. I mean, I can't imagine the mills make it any easier because if I'm negotiating and I've got a lower price than is being reflected in fast markets, which is accurate, I just. It didn't get a great price. And I go to the mill, the mill's gonna say, no first markets prices are all wrong. I promise you're getting the highest price in the market. That's what they're gonna tell me because they don't wanna tell me that they gave$15 extra to somebody else. They're gonna tell me that I'm, I'm on the same page as everybody. So that can't help you either. But I just wanna ask you methodology. When you say methodology, you're not talking about, we used an average of 10. Suppliers into three mills. You're not saying that, you're saying hierarchy of information and things like that. Is that right? Yeah, I'd say it will give you the parameters of the assessment or index depending on which, in this case, we're obviously talking more heavily about the US far scrap market, so they would be assessment. So it will give you the parameters so people will know what information is acceptable in the formulation of those prices. Um, and obviously. They will understand the category and the caliber of information that goes in. To form those assessments, but I, I think it's a good thing that we're assessing rather than calculating these markets because it really does involve a lot of specialist knowledge and being able to kind of crunch those numbers and understand how that market functions. Whereas I think, you know, naming no names, there will be, uh, maybe outfits that are focused purely on index calculations that I think actually sometimes do more harm than good because they don't take into account certain functions of, of the markets. Spit out a calculated number, which, um, in some instances can be more harmful, I think, than having someone analyzing the market that understands its functions and is able to use their judgment to produce an accurate number that represents that market at any given time. Look, I think a lot of credit to you guys for making your people available, right? I don't think anybody else does that. So that's. Great. But I would hate to be one of them. Sometimes they must receive some very tough calls where it's like, I need to know how you got to this because I'm nowhere near this. Um, have you ever been on the receiving end of that call? Oh, I've lost count. I'm fully just to keep it topical to metals. I'm like fully galvanized. I'm like, galvanizer's, dros at this point. Like, I've been through this mill so many times, like it's, uh. Sort of like a rite of passage. No, of course. And it's not for the faint hearted in terms of a job, particularly not when you are operating or managing such a huge benchmark. But I would say that the fact that people are so vocal and they care so much about those numbers actually is a point of pride because it means that you are spending your days investing in a career that really matters to people. There are people that are settling, you know, billions of dollars against some of these contracts, um, that that fast market. Prices. Um, and it's, uh, it's an important function. So I think, you know, there's good days and bad days, but I think the good outweighs the bad. If you're looking for something that has purpose and that is important. It's got purpose. It's definitely got purpose. I bet. I bet you, you never get a phone call that says, wow, well done guys. You got that price spot on. Uh, I actually, it does happen, but it is so funny because you'll, you'll know this. So my official tenure with scrap is nearly up. Um, so I, I accepted, um, I'm going to head up another team within Fast Markets and I'm looking forward to some new challenges. Um, but it was only after I'd sort of announced that I was hanging up my hat, that people actually came to me with some really lovely compliments, which is really nice. But I thought, you know, I've been in this market for nearly five years now, and I've been leading the team for three, and I thought, wow, there have been times throughout my tenure that a kind word wouldn't have gone amiss. Um, you know, now and again, but I suppose at least I can bookend my, my current, uh, foray into the scrap markets with some positive work. Yeah. That's awesome. When you look at, um, kind of into the future five 10, I mean, I always say I was doing a podcast just this weekend, um, on stage in Atlantic City, and I asked the guest what does he think the next 10 years looked like? And he literally gave me examples of. Things that are currently out there. So I want to say to you, what does the next five to 10 years look like? It could be in one year, like there's a lot of structural changes that are happening. What's gonna disrupt scrap prices and how they've discovered how they're reported on et cetera. Hmm. That's a really good question. It's a really obvious one to this, isn't there? Ai, um, there are a lot of market participants at middle level or even on the dealer side that are more reliant on. AI based applications across a lot of their operations now. Um, so we are seeing with inventory management, um, there's software that can really nimbly, um, you know, pick your furnace melt based on inventory on the ground, best yield, cost curve, all all that good stuff. So since we are seeing a lot of that happening. The participant side. I know that there's some suggestions to say that actually we used to say that a human is needed, um, to, to crunch this data and to assess these prices. Um, even though I don't think that I'm gonna be out of a job tomorrow, I would say that there are a lot of things within the data intelligence space, um, that are relying increasingly on artificial intelligence, even though I don't think it's gonna be a substitution. I do think that that's a huge disruptor in this space, and we're already seeing the ways in which ai, um, can make the process more nimble. Whether it comes to the pricing, I don't know. But certainly when it comes to the formulation and the ability to sort through data, because what we do at fast markets, there are lots of facets to it. I can definitely see the way that AI is streamlining, um, and disrupting. The space to positive effect. Do I think it's gonna put us out of a job? No. But I do think that it's gonna help us to be more nimble and I think that can only be a good thing. Mm-hmm. Okay, so we're out of time and usually I would ask you my lightning questions. Favorite book, favorite movie, place to visit? It's, but we've already done that, so we know everything there is to know about. Amy Jane hinted. So let's quickly find out one or two other things. Tell us one thing that we don't know about you. Um, one thing that you don't know about me. Um, well actually something since I've been living in the US it's increased my interest in football. And I'm not talking about American football. So obviously this is a World Cup year and it's really exciting because the World Cup is being, um, hosted across North America. So the US, Canada, and Mexico are all getting their fair share of matches. So I'm really looking forward to the World Cup this year and I'm a, a supporter of Chelsea Football Club. So there go, I don't think anyone knows that about. But my, my love of the be my love of the beautiful game, which I feel like having been born in 1989 and growing up in the kind of golden era of, of sort of David Beckham and, and. The likes. You know, at the time I didn't have a full appreciation for like my father's indoctrination of me when it came to watching football as a child. But now that I live in the US where people say football for something that is essentially rugby with walkie talkies, um, it's, it, you know, I feel a lot more strongly about actual football and, and my roots. You mean where you actually use your foot football? Yes, exactly. Yeah, that makes sense. Instead of, so like a Luna thing. I used to like you, I used to like you, but uh, I am not a fan of Chelsea. I'm a Liverpool fan and, uh, I, it could be worse. Exactly. Yeah. Your, your rivals. I flew to Anfield once to go watch Manchester United versus Liverpool, and I watched David Beckham play. Um, and those were very good days. Great news. England probably won't even make the World Cup, right? Don't I? Already, and I don't mean the knockout stages. No. What was it? I was listening to, um, football's coming home over the weekend. It popped onto my playlist and I started to get all misty eyed. Um, and I was just thinking about, you know, I would really laugh. Nothing would give me greater pleasure, um, than if we were to win the World Cup in, in America. In America, that would do, right. That's we boring people now. Um, they like throwing the ball in their football, so, um, she has something different. Teach me something, anything. Okay. Right. Here's a some, so I'm thinking of maybe going back to school to get my MBA. So top tip for test conditions, which are always very useful, if you have a test in front of you with X amount of questions before you even put pen to paper. Pro tip, read through every single question. On that paper, read through slowly, carefully, and then go back to question number one and start answering. Because whilst you've read that information and you've gone back to the top of the paper to start putting your answers down, your brain is already subconsciously thinking about the answers to the remainder of those questions. Um, and an additional point, um, confidence is key. Apparently studies show that based on confidence levels, a man will go into a test with less preparation and do better than a woman because a woman worries more about her performance. So there you go. A couple of words to the words makes a lot of, it's probably the only reason and confidence is key. So there you go. If you are in on a sticky wicket stew, hopefully that's equipped you with some tools to succeed. I've never lacked confidence going into exam. I'm be honest. No, I was gonna, but I, I always thought, I always thought, read the questions before I was always told, read all the questions. I always thought it was because read them and then start with the easy ones. Literally. That's what I always thought it was. Well, there you go. If you could knock those out nice and quickly and get them on the board and then your subconscious is working on the tough ones. There we go. Exactly. Subconscious working on the tough one. Amy, this was lots of fun. Thanks so much for joining us on Born Scrappy Again. It's been a pleasure. Thank you, Stu. That's it for this episode of Born Scrappy. If you have any questions, stories, or topics you want us to dig into, send them my way. Until then, keep it scrappy.