
Born Scrappy
The go-to podcast for scrap metal exporters and traders
Born Scrappy
Decoding China's steel agenda with Atilla Widnell of Navigate Commodities
In this episode, I chat to Atilla Widnell, Founder & Managing Director of Navigate Commodities.
Navigate Commodities monitors commodity supply chains in real time through the use of satellites. They monitor production at steel mills and analyse metal flow in specific regions.
We discuss the latest developments in the steel industry, particularly focusing on China's recent National People's Congress and its implications on global steel markets. This episode is a deep dive into understanding the major forces shaping the global steel industry and what to expect in the coming months.
In today's episode, we talk about:
👉 Chinese capacity cuts
👉 Structural reforms
👉 Global steel market complexity
👉 The situation in turkey
👉 And much more!
Listen to the full episode. Wherever you stream your podcasts.
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WHO IS STU KAGAN ANYWAYS?
26 years in the metal recycling game and still learning and growing...
I learnt from the best and worked my way up from yard labourer to Executive Director of Trading and Operations for the largest metal recycler in sub-Saharan Africa. Responsible for 4,500 employees, 85 sites, and the overall profitability of a multi-billion dollar operation.
I brought my breadth and depth of knowledge to bear and co-founded the fastest growing, most-loved, and most awarded metal recycling company in New Zealand. No small feat in a country where people are outnumbered 4:1 by sheep (spoiler alert: sheep don’t produce much metal waste).
I thought it was time that tech worked for our industry, so I took all of my experience as an operator and trader and leveraged that to build THE killer scrap app, Buddy. That’s right - built for scrappies, by scrappies.
Father of two crazy-awesome boys. Husband to Lisa. Under 9 rugby coach. YPO member. Lifelong learner. Mentee. Mentor. Chief dog walker. Committed Stoic. Undefeated dance-off champion.
COME SAY HI ON LINKEDIN
Hi, I'm Stu Kagan and welcome to Born Scrappy, the podcast for scrap metal exporters and traders. Join me in conversation with some of the most experienced traders and operators that have helped shape this incredible industry. In today's episode, we welcome Attila Windell back onto the show to discuss the latest steel news out of China. Attila is the CEO and founder of Navigate Commodities and EX is extremely knowledgeable. When it comes to the global steel market and specifically China and Turkey, with China having just had their annual sessions to discuss their way forward over the next year, I thought it'd be great to unpack what we heard and the impact it will have on the global steel markets. In today's episode, we talk about China's National People's Congress, Chinese capacity cuts, structural reforms, global steel market complexity, the situation in Turkey and so much more. So let's jump in with a teller, but first intro. Hi Atilla. Welcome back to Born Scrappy. How are you? I'm very well, mate. How are you? Yeah, I'm, I'm excellent. Uh, it feels like it was just the other day we were in California on, uh, table scraps and it was obviously just aired the other week and, um, yeah. Uh, yeah, we were robbed. Um, on the, um, on the starters and the main course, I think the, um, the dessert is really where it let us down. Um, I dunno who was in charge of that. Um, I've, you know, that was not, I've, I've never had a crispy, um, AMI soup before, but, you know, it's, uh, wow tiller, um, so much for being on the same team here. We're meant to be having a go at the Alta friendly fire and oh geez, you straight away go internally. Right? This is, that hurts. So rarely we were robbed because we were the only ones who didn't need extra time. We were the only ones who finished That's true. In the right amount of time. So if it was like a Master Shep competition, we were actually, we won it. So, um, no, they would, Ulta would've served a, a raw piece of meat and, um. Andrew Lincoln would've served dessert with no sugar. It, right. It would've a savory biscuit, whatever it was, that that wouldn't just, wouldn't have worked. So anyway, that's what this podcast, I mean, in the USA I think like, um, are there any other ingredients apart from salt, salt, sugar, that's really much it. But um. Till this podcast today is all about how we were robbed on, um, on, uh, table scraps. No, I'm just kidding. So in case anybody switched off right now, the reason why we brought a tiller back on is because just the other day, the two sessions were held, um, in China and every year they have a massive impact. On the steel market. Um, and it's really important, um, in our industry to, I guess stay ahead of, um, what is going on in those sessions. Can you and, and Itin, I know how much you are aware of it, I know how much you monitor this. Um, and it plays a part of, you know, um, obviously navigate commodities and what you do, um, because you do a lot of forecasting. So can you just give us some background on, on what these two sessions are for those of people that don't know and how it has an impact on global markets? Yeah, indeed. Thanks, gee. Um, so it, you know, all jokes aside, um, you know, the NPC is a, or the National People's Congress, um, sort of, uh, two sessions is an incredibly important, uh, framework for the year ahead in China. Um, sort of, it gets all of the high ranking top officials together in one place. Um. And it brings together all of these top ranking officials to basically set out the theme, um, of what's going to happen in the economy, um, for the year ahead. So in actuality, the Chinese are very, very good at telegraphing of what, what they're planning to do ahead of time, um, and then follow through in terms of executing. So the, these, obviously these two sessions which were held, um, in early, uh, March. Um, sort of set out sort of the principles and the guidelines with which, um, the, the governments, the state government, the federal government will focus on, um, in the year ahead. And that will then inform. I guess the, the sort of, um, the, the provincial level, the municipal level, um, sort of authorities, um, of what they have to target in terms of their KPIs and, um, what they have to achieve in, in the coming year ahead. What areas of growth to focus on. Um, so. The whole sort of financial markets and the industrial metals markets like iron ore, steel, copper. Were watching these two sessions to, to look for any crumb of evidence, wording, sort of hat, tips, nods, winks, um, in terms of what the government is gonna focus on, um, in terms of any sort of industrial heavy industry sort of sector support in. Infrastructure programs, civil engineering and so on. So that's, that's why it's such an important sort of, um, uh, meeting and that's why the financial markets sort of focus on it, um, so much. Yeah, I mean, if you can kind of think about it as a business, it's kind of like the annual strategy session, um, that they sit down and do over these two sessions. And because of the importance of China, um, and the global impact that it has. Of course everybody sits up and listens to, as you say, everything that's being discussed. And, um, it has a, it has an effect on pretty much everything, specifically our industry. Right. It has a huge effect on our industry. Can you talk us through what they spoke about when it comes to steel demand for infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing? Where are we seeing that for the upcoming year? How's that gonna go? Yeah, so there's, there's a lot to unpack. Um, so we'll take it point by point. So, because it's such an important meeting, um, in terms of setting out, um, where the government intends to focus on growth and sort of weather stimulate or, um, focus its investment now, you know. The majority of, um, China's steel demand is heavily focused on, um, sort of construction infrastructure, civil engineering, with a more modest focus on manufacturing, which covers, you know, automotive, um, so on appliances, yellow goods, which will be your sort of, um, farm equipment and so on. Now, obviously, so the key sector that was of, of interest for the financial markets. Um, when I say financial markets, I mean derivatives, traders that are trading, you know, iron ore, steel futures, um, copper futures and so on. So the sector of, um, of extreme interest was to see if there were any sort of acknowledgements in terms of, um, heavy investment and stimulating, um. The government sort of tone wording, rhetoric. Um. Consumption, um, supporting consumption. Now that may sound like a positive, um, for steel demand, however, it's actually turned out to be a negative. Um, so when, um, the Chinese government says consumption, they're looking at consumer demand. So consumer demand is not of, you know, infrastructure and civil engineering. Consumer demand is of appliances. Um, and is. Marginally less still intensive than sort of the heavier, um, infrastructure and civil engineering side. Um, so what they've come out with since then are sort of policies aimed at sort of trade-ins. Um, so trading in new vehicles, your old vehicles for new vehicles, appliances for new new appliances and so on. Sort of trading in farm equipment, buses. Those are all fantastic, but we've seen a lot of that over the last couple of years and that hasn't really moved the needle in terms of overall national steel consumptions provides a little bit of buoyancy, um, but not enough to sort of soak up all of the excess steel supply in the Chinese system, which obviously, you know, we are seeing. Flow outta the country and hit, um, other economies on mass, which obviously having quite a detrimental impact, um, to other nations, which is why, you know, we are now starting to see tariffs coming up on Chinese steel from, you know, the likes of not only just the US but um, the Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, um, I think India about to announce as well, lobbying their government. It kind of disappointed in short is what I'm trying to. Teeth around anything sort of infrastructure and civil engineering focused. Um, so, you know, there has been a mild improvement in, in sort of the deep, um, dark, depressing double digit contractions from last year in terms of, uh, property real estate, um, floor space under construction and completion rates. But it's still single digit negative growth year on year. Concerning is that, um, actually there's not enough there at the moment to suggest that, um, China's going to revert to stimulating infrastructure and civil engineering projects this year. Right. So not positive news on the, on the growth side of things, I guess not what we were hoping to hear on the demand side. Yeah, China. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. So on the trade and export policies, I mean, when we talk about tariffs,'cause obviously it's what everybody's talking about at the moment. Um, you know, what signals did they give to any sort of change of their, um, steel trade policies, if any? Yeah, so I, I guess it goes back to the previous question, um, or the previous answer that we were talking about in terms of them highlighting, um, some capacity, um, reductions. Um, given that there's a persistent oversupply built into the Chinese steel industry. That, um, when you're looking at the Iron Futures or still futures, um, in real time, they're highly reactive, um, to sort of statements, headlines, um, comments, um, made in the press. So if we're looking back to late last Friday in sort of, um, Singapore's evening trading session between 9:11 PM. You know, it was morning time in the US and President Trump was talking about this sort of flexibility in, um, tariffs potentially on China. Um, if, um, sort of, um, discussions go well, um. And it was quite fascinating to see in the sort of financial derivatives markets for iron ore and still futures in China that they were just started roofing. Um, because there's the sort of retail, non-sophisticated, um, investor element assumed that was a good thing for Chinese steel and Chinese steel exports because if they're, the tariffs are sort of eased, then China can keep on sort of flooding the market with their excess steel. However. That's not necessarily a positive, actually, it's a massive negative because, um, you know, that means that, um, the Chinese steel industry will remain net imbalanced in terms of supply, heavily exceeding, um, sort of domestic demand. And what that will basically due to the market is that it will crush, um, sort of local prices and crush local margins, territory. Will force the government's hand anyway to, to basically, um, sort of close capacity, you know, later rather than sooner. Um, so, you know, I, I don't believe that the US Tarris will necessarily have a, or easing of US tariff will necessarily have a positive impact on, on the Chinese steel industry. Actually, if you look to, um, sort of other markets like Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, they are the major importers of, um, Chinese steel. So, you know, the majority of those countries have already imposed, um, tariffs on Chinese steel, which will limit the flow of exports coming into their country. Um, and that is going to force, um, the n DRCs hand ceases hand sooner rather than later to enforce those mandated production cuts for those capacity cuts in China. So. It's starting to feel like it's more of an inevitability. The, the big question is when will it happen and how quickly will it happen? So like, um, if you look back to 2015, you know, there was enforced capacity cuts within the sort of induction furnace, um, sector of the steel industry. Um, it took them sort of 12, 18 months to enforce about a hundred million tons worth of capacity reductions. So we're sort of waiting for. First, um, embers of news to start flowing, that, you know, China are gonna start sending inspection teams round or supervisory teams round to sort of oversee, um, those capacity reductions to make sure, you know, blast are actually blown down. Um. But I think, you know, um, it's really the tariffs, um, in Asia. Um, I think India are about to impose, um, tariffs on Chinese steel as well. So that will add more sort of, um, incentive for Chinese authorities to cut, um, capacity sooner rather than later. Because I, you know, with a struggling economy, especially on the property sector side, they don't want to have a steel industry that's hemorrhaging money as well. Um, so. And with their focus on the domestic, um, their domestic economy, how could that change? Um, you know, its steel export strategy. So I mean, you know, again, it goes back to probably the first question, like we were hoping, um, you know, and a healthy China is, um, is good for the world, let's be honest. Um, because they will be consuming, um, raw materials and, and. Um, unfortunately there were, there was lacking in detail around sort of. Investments, um, and growth around sort of heavy industry and infrastructure and civil engineering. So if they're sort of focusing on, you know, advanced manufacturing, like semiconductor chips and, you know, advanced industries and, um, you know, maybe just focusing on trade-ins and, and manufacturing for the time being. That doesn't really support, um, domestic sort of steel consumption to the extent that it needs to, to balance, um, that demand supply equation. So it didn't go anywhere enough, which is why, you know, financial markets derivatives on Chinese industrials, uh, are sort of, you know, fallen off, um, since the beginning of March. Um, you know, there were high expectations of something to. The right. I don't know whether that's a function of that. They're sort of still waiting to see, um, how things play out with the US or whether they feel they can get by with a growth in other sectors, um, apart from, um, heavy industry. Um, so they, they've been wanting to move away from sort of consumption led growth for a long time. Move towards services led growth. Um, and, you know, I guess, you know, your, your steel industry is the first one probably to suffer from that. Um, and so they're trying to consolidate and, um, structurally reform it. Um, so it's not such a burden, um, on the country. Um, but yeah, it's been a, it's been a massive disappointment, so I don't think there's going to be much balancing on the demand side. It's probably going to come from the supply side, um, this year and next. With the latest policies. What about the demand? Um, for. Yeah, so that one's relatively straightforward. Um, so I mean, obviously if we're gonna cut, um, sort of, um, 50 million tons or more worth of capacity, that obviously, um, you know, logically implies that they're going to be consuming less iron or, um, less metallurgical coal. Um. So dissecting one iron ore, they import the majority of their, um, their consumption. So they import sort of, you know, I think it's about 80% of their, um, consumption. And the balance is produced locally with co coal, methological coal, it's, um, reversed. Um, they produce the more majority of their consumption locally and they import the sort of balance from Russia, Australia. Um, but generally speaking, obviously. If you've got fewer blast when this is operating, then you are gonna require, um, significantly less iron or met coal to produce metal. I. Every time there's announcements around, um, still capacity cuts, um, you see sort of an equal and opposite, um, increase in rebar futures and a drop in SGX and DC iron futures. Um, so the market is playing out fairly rationally at the moment. So, um, it's, uh, you know, the iron or iron market is understanding that, you know, capacity reductions will, um, reduce, um, sort of, uh, Chinese consumption, um, in the sort of medium, longer term. Um, and so, you know, that's why you've got, um, sort of iron features testing that hundred hundred dollars a ton. Um, level, you know, you've got investment banks talking about iron prices potentially falling to sort of, um, around sort of 80 bucks by the end of the year due to sort of capacity reductions in steel in China, but also increased supply from new projects, um, in, um, west Africa, like, um, the Guinea. You know that that level might be a bit farfetched'cause there's been a lot of cost inflation. Um, so you know, the marginal cost. Higher marginal cost producers have sort of gone higher on the marginal cost curve. So I mean, like, um, you know, sort of the highest cost producers there. The marginal cost per ton is probably about sort of 90, 95 a ton now. So there won't be significant downside to come for iron ore, but, um, you know, could find some weakness, um, through the course of the year, um, as sort of comes back from Australia and. The tropical cyclones that they've been suffering from in q1. Um, and generally you start seeing more supply come to the market in the second half of the year. So if that sort of, um, intersex capacity reduction cuts in China, then you will get sort of weakness in the second half of the year, no doubt about that, but I wouldn't see it's sort of falling off a cliff anytime soon. Okay, so let's get to the crux of this. Um. How do you think China's, um, the, the policies are gonna influence global steel prices and have we seen any sort of movements already? Yeah, so it's, um, at present we're sort of, it's kind of the status quo. Um, I think sort of China is, is more sort of influential. In markets that are still importing, um, significant volumes, um, of Chinese material. Um, you know, to the contrary. So if we look at us somewhere closer to home, um, obviously tariffs not only on Chinese steel or Chinese goods, um, but um, steel from all other countries, um, or has obviously had a material impact. That's a function of obviously, you know, not, not really tariffs on Chinese steel, but, or, or finished products or indirect steel imports either. So whether it's vehicles or, you know, yellow goods or appliances, but actually it's tariffs on Canadian steel, tariffs on Mexican steel, for example. That's, that's created, um, the, the sort of tariff, inflationary induced heat, shall we say. Um. Now, I mean, there's so many elements these days. It can get incredibly confusing because I mean, like if you look at places like Turkey for example, you know, they've been importing significant tons of, of Chinese bits, bars, and rods. Um, you know, obviously the local steel producers are being hurt by that and they want to sort of, they're lobbying the governments to try and, um, affect, um, their own sort of tariff measures. When you've scrap, um, trading at sort of three$80 C import China, Malaysia, at. Bargain. Um, so those mills or re rollers that have reheating furnaces or re-rolling lines, you know, can buy in that billet, re-roll it and, uh, make some good margin on that because your cost of conversion from scrap in an EAF into a bar's probably about 170 to 190 ton. So that means that scrap is well out the market outta the money, um, compared to what they're able to buy, um, sort of semi-finished products for. Now. The difficulty is those mills that don't have, um, potentially re-rolling lines to, to accommodate billets. Secondly, if you're buying billets from Asia, China, Malaysia, you know, there's probably a three month, um, lead time before, you know, striking that deal and arriving, um, on shore. The difficulty comes if there's any sort of, um, capacity reforms or structural in, of still production in China and prices. Some, some suppliers in China and Malaysia have a habit of canceling those physical contracts, um, and then reoffering it out to a higher price. So you end up getting, you know, for want of a better word, screwed. Um, so there comes like an inherent risk, um, in doing that trade. So, but at the moment there's quite considerable volatility in Turkey at the moment. Um, given some, some recent political risk. Um. So actually, you know, with delly depreciating heavily last week, um, you know, actually Chinese steel or Malaysian steel that's relatively cheaper actually presents an opportunity in the short, short term. So it keeps them alive. While they're having to sort of fight a depreciating lyra, you know, they're not, they're having to reprice their own domestic material, um, in terms of rebar. Um, because of that, you know, then they've had to stop purchasing scrap because obviously it's, um, it's now more expensive on a US dollar perton basis. So actually it makes sense to probably buy a little bit more, um, Asian origin, um, billets, um, take the risk, re-roll it, um, and sort of. So there's so many, so many different layers and complexities all over the world. It's almost like each country has its own sort of, um, specific individual dynamics at the moment. And it's, it's obviously become quite hectic, um, to look at because, you know, the, the, the global still industry is no longer sort of. Breath, it's every, there are pockets of sort of case by case basis. Um, so you have be sort following to understand how that might affect, um, s regions. Um, so it's, it's been a quite a tough, tough quarter, I'm not gonna lie. Um, it sort of reminds us of the covid years. Um, it's been that intense, um, just to keep up with developments and understand how that's affecting our clients' operations and, you know, the, the sort of, um, the analysis and, um, research, um, that we provide them. So I just wanna double click a little bit on. As we speak, um, can you just give us a little bit more, uh, of an explanation of what's happening? What sort of real impact is this gonna have? Because the MS price is a hugely important price globally. Um, so, so what are you seeing there? So I'll probably have to tread fairly lightly, um, carefully. So, um, but, uh, from, you know, from what, what we read and press same with everyone else, is that, um, key sort of, um, opposition political figure has been arrested in Turkey, um, sort of over weekend, who I think presented a legitimate, um, challenge, um, to the incumbents. Um. Whether it's right or wrong, um, that's not for us to say. Um, but uh, obviously how financial markets have reacted, um, has been to sort of heavily sell anything related to Turkey, whether it's currencies, equities, bonds, um, and so on. And so, you know, last week. Using the Turkish as an example, you know, at one point it depreciated by about 12%, um, sort of above. Um, now obviously that, that sort of signals that, um. Financial markets have, um, a risk off attitude, um, to Turkish assets and that, um, they don't trust, um, the government and they don't trust the economy. So that, that's typically your first signal, um, that, uh, you know, there's, there's something wrong there. And, but what have we, what have we seen on the actual scrap prices since then? Have, have there been any sales? No, no, there's been no sales and the market's sort of just gone sideways. Um, so, you know, the Turkish, I think from what we understood from a couple of clients last week, that, um, rebar sales have been suspended for a couple of days while the mills repriced on a, um, Turkish lira de denominated basis, and therefore at the same time they suspended, um, tenders or bids. Fer, scrap, bulk fer, scrap car goes into Turkey. So at the moment, everyone's sort of scratching their head waiting and seeing, um, you know, if we are looking at the, the LME futures, um, curve, you know, um, that's pricing in a drop of about five a. Um, I think it's too soon to, um, accept the market will come off. Um, so I mean, if, you know, if we sort of revert it back to the us you know, obviously US is a large supplier of Ferris, scrapped to Turkey, and the Chicago HMS number one price is trading at a premium. Um, so the export price, um, meaning that, you know, actually it makes more sense for suppliers to feed the mills domestically than it does to export at a. So there's obviously that, that theoretical tightness, um, in supply. And so, you know, if the Turks want to buy a US origin, scrap cargo, they're gonna have to pay a premium for it. Um, so it's, it sort of sets the pricing floor, um, a lot higher. So the pushback from Turkish mills is going to be met, sort of, you know, um, by some, some significant resistance. It's not a pretty environment. I mean, and the problem is that's, um, with. You know, it's going to sort of, um, cause this shock effect where, you know, people are gonna stop buying, um, steel, maybe pause, um, until the economic environment and political environment come clearly. Um, people are gonna stop, um, making investments in construction projects. Um, until again, there's some certainty. Um, and you know, that hurts, um, downstream steel consumption in Turkey, which means that Turkish, um, EAFs are not gonna be operating as, um, at a higher utilization rate, which means that they're gonna be consuming less scrap, um, which theoretically you would assume would push down the price. But if the price is still elevated in the us, um, you know, you're gonna met with resistance of in. Um, um, limbo land where sort of, you know, economics not making complete sense. Um, and so, you know, demand is weak, but prices are high. Um, so, um, but I think that's been a, a factor of the markets for quite a while. Um, so it's, yeah, uh, it's, we'll just have to wait to see how that unfolds. Unfortunately, there are still protests. Um, in Turkey and we'll have to see how that unfolds and whether some, um, degree of normality, um, and calmer heads prevail. Um, and then we'll be able to take it from there. But at the moment, I think the general consensus that sort of sideways until, um, sort of things calm down, um, because no one's doing anything at the moment. Um. On the supply side, there's sufficient material in Europe. Um, but the, the Europeans are doing a good job of sort of keeping their prices relatively stable because they're like, well, you know, if you don't wanna pay a premium for, um, the US material, we're gonna charge you a similar rate. Um, but um, obviously on a geographical, um, sort of, uh, spread basis, so, you know. I mean, these, these are commodity traders, right? They're very good at the job. Um, so yeah, exactly right. Um, he has the toughest question of the night. So what, um, what do you see the prices doing in the next three months? So, um, a wise man told me to just, um, forecast what I see in front of him. Um, so, um, so at the moment, um, you know, with, I, I think we have to bring this again back to the us. Because the US is sort of, um, is setting the pricing floor if we're talking about Ferris scrap and steel. Um, so if tariffs remain on, you know, imports of steel, which includes Canada, Mexico, if there are no exemptions or quotas, um. We would expect sort of, you know, um, fair scrap prices, let's say into Turkey, into India, um, and so on to keep on rising, but attrition. Is not good at the moment. Demand is not good at the moment, so there's a lot of resistance there. But if the prices in the US remain high and keep on sort of, you know, um, sort of ticking up, um, then it will obviously. Increase pricing for the export markets. Um, but obviously you'll have that sort of ceiling, how much you can push up and turmoil in the markets will be how much it can push up. Um, so it becomes sort of quite attri, um, in nature. Um, so that's the base case scenario, but um, I think as we've all beco become accustomed to in the first three months of the year, um, we don't know if tariffs will remain in place or will be taken off. Um, so this on again off again, um, volatility. Um. Sort of financial markets are deploring it at the moment because no one likes uncertainty. No one likes, I mean, markets like volatility, but some traders, financial traders can trade that. But no one likes uncertainty. Um, and it obviously hurts sort of, um, big investments into the sector. So it, it sort of feels like it's going to sort of just tick up very, very slowly if the current status quo, um, sort of prevails. Um, I think obviously if tariffs come off on Canada and Mexico in the US then you'll see an almighty correction lower. Um, so that. In these sort of circumstances, you know, if, um, certain traders have access to, um, sort of futures and options, you'd be sort of start investigating in terms of some sort of strategy, sort of protect yourself from, you know. Um, but yeah, that's, that's sort of what we see at the moment. But it is a highly volatile, ever evolving. Yeah, it sort of scenario at probably the most, um, challenging, um, outside in. Said something to that, on to that question. So the only person I know that would've tried to answer that. So that's why we had you here. And, um, as long, as, long as you're right, 51% of the time, um, as usual man. Um, super informative. That was awesome. Thanks for being on the show again. My pleasure, Steve. Thanks for having us. Cheers. Is.