Born Scrappy
The go-to podcast for scrap metal exporters and traders
Born Scrappy
Navigating tariff implications with FastMarkets' Amy Hinton
In this episode, I chat to Amy Hinton, North American Scrap Editor for Fastmarkets.
She has her finger on the pulse when it comes to price reporting and has become a familiar face in the industry.
Amy has a background in both financial services and journalism, and holds a Masters degree from University of Bath.
In today's episode, we talk about:
👉 The impact of new tariffs
👉 The winners and losers
👉 Domestic mill capacity
👉 New trading lanes
👉 And much more!
Listen to the full episode. Wherever you stream your podcasts.
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WHO IS STU KAGAN ANYWAYS?
26 years in the metal recycling game and still learning and growing...
I learnt from the best and worked my way up from yard labourer to Executive Director of Trading and Operations for the largest metal recycler in sub-Saharan Africa. Responsible for 4,500 employees, 85 sites, and the overall profitability of a multi-billion dollar operation.
I brought my breadth and depth of knowledge to bear and co-founded the fastest growing, most-loved, and most awarded metal recycling company in New Zealand. No small feat in a country where people are outnumbered 4:1 by sheep (spoiler alert: sheep don’t produce much metal waste).
I thought it was time that tech worked for our industry, so I took all of my experience as an operator and trader and leveraged that to build THE killer scrap app, Buddy. That’s right - built for scrappies, by scrappies.
Father of two crazy-awesome boys. Husband to Lisa. Under 9 rugby coach. YPO member. Lifelong learner. Mentee. Mentor. Chief dog walker. Committed Stoic. Undefeated dance-off champion.
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Hi, I'm Stu Kagan, and welcome to Born Scrappy, the podcast for scrap metal exporters and traders. Join me in conversation with some of the most experienced traders and operators that have helped shape this incredible industry. In this first episode of season four, we jump straight into a masterclass on tariffs with Amy Hinton. Amy is the head of recycled metals for North America at FastMarkets, and we couldn't think of anyone better. to talk us through this hot topic. In today's episode, we talk about the impact of tariffs, the winners and losers, domestic milk capacity, Canada and Mexico, new trading lanes, and so much more. So let's get season four started and jump into all things tariffs with Amy. But first, intro. Hi, Amy. Good morning. How are you? Good morning, Stuart. I am very well. How are you? Yeah, I'm excellent. I'm excited to delve into all things tariffs with you. So, um, ready to get started. We've had some real fun the last, um, Few weeks, I guess. Well in Houston the other day, um, you and I could probably sit and talk about British comedy and, um, funny things all day and, um, love spending time with you, but we're going to try and be a little bit serious today. So, um, yeah, excited to get started. How are you? All good. All good. And this is the perfect time to have this conversation. I think we'll leave the British comedy for another time. Um, we'll delve into some, uh, some tariffs, give the people what they want, practical solutions. Well, I did a table the other day. People wanted British comedy as well. So, but for this episode, we're going to focus on tariffs. So let's understand, Amy, you are head of, um, North American recycled metals. For fast markets, is that right? Yeah, that's right. So I'm very fortunate to lead the team over here at fast markets that covers stainless scrap, ferrous scrap, non ferrous scrap, and raw materials, pig iron and HBI for North America. Okay, so we've got the right person. How did you land up in this industry and loving the recycling world? Totally by chance, actually. So I started at FastMarket's London office in January of 2019, and I was working on the base metals desk, and my preserve at the time was primary nickel, which comes in handy now for stainless scrap, and secondary aluminium specifically for the UK market. And my boss at the time just picked up on the fact that I seemed to really enjoy working in the scrap market, or what he called the slightly sort of wild west, less transparent, Um, and then when a promotion became available to work on us, Ferris scrap, I took the opportunity and was fortunate to come over and work on the U. S. team at fast markets and for the past year and a half, I've been fortunate enough to run that team. Yeah, that's cool. And, uh, and never looked back, have you? No, not at all. There's no time. I don't have time to look in the room. Things evolve so quickly. That's, you know, you snooze, you lose. Welcome. Welcome to the world of metal recycling. And once you're in, you never leave. So I believe that I firmly believe that what you get bitten by the bug and then that's it. You're a lifer. Um, Ames, can you talk us through, let's just understand what's going on with tariffs, where we are currently, um, and how it's affecting the metal recycling industry. Yeah, absolutely. So things have been evolving thick and fast since the 1st of February. So I'm going to distinguish between the broadband tariffs that were initially announced to be levied on February the 1st on all material imports from Mexico and Canada to the tune of a 25 percent levy and also a lesser 10 percent levy on imports from China. They were announced on the 1st of February. Two days later, it was announced that President Trump was going to negotiate with the Canadian and Mexican administrations. Um, so there's a 30 day reprieve on those tariffs, um, or the potential imposition of those tariffs. There's been a levying of 10 percent on imports from China. They've retaliated. The consideration there is slightly different. They're further out and economically speaking, the impact may not be as large. Then we come on to the 10th of February. Where section 232 2. 0 essentially was announced and the implications there are that all steel and aluminum imports globally into the U. S. will be subject to 25 percent tariffs. Those tariffs exclude, um, recycled steel and recycled aluminum, but obviously there will be implications for the supply chain because what do you need to make finished product in a jurisdiction where 70 plus percent of steelmaking is electric arc furnace, which is heavily predicated on scrap consumption. You need recycled steel, recycled aluminium. So that that's just sort of in a nutshell how things have evolved from the beginning of the month. Yeah. And it was, it was a wild ride the few days because now you say, well, it doesn't include recycled metal. Um, just the other day it was including recycled metal. So we had the few days of real, real uncertainty, especially as, um, you know, the Canadian market and the Mexican market unsure of what would happen with the flow of their recycled metals. That was clarified quite nicely. Um, and it came out that, you know, we don't have to worry about the inflow. Of recycled metal, which is fantastic for the domestic buyers, but obviously then it's the finished goods, which can't come in without, uh, without the tariffs at the moment, which Is going to put, uh, we'll give a lot of opportunities for the melters, right? So we see a huge amount of opportunities. They can either, um, you know, increase their sales prices and grow their margins, or will they increase their sales prices and increase their buying prices? There should be more of a demand. So we're going to go into all of that because I think that's where it gets exciting is, is, well, how does this play out? We'll look at what happened in 2018 and things like that. But I want to start with the first question, right? So. What, what are we expecting the effect on the scrap prices to be in the U. S.? Okay, great question. So in order to look forward, I know I said a minute ago that we're not going to waste time looking in the rearview mirror, but I'm going to make an exception. So we're just going to go back briefly to 2018. So if we look at the imposition of the original round of 232 tariffs in March of 2018, we actually saw a steady incline in scrap prices. up to that point. So after Trump was elected, um, there was a lot of bullishness towards the potential protectionist measures. At the point at which they were levied, scrap prices had already been rising for about six months to the tune of about 300 a ton. Um, so if we look back then, there was a notice period, there were incremental increases in scrap prices, which you would expect as the. measures were designed to stimulate domestic production. This time round, um, there are a lot of jurisdictions that already have tariffs levied. Um, so the impact shouldn't be as severe because there are lots of countries that are already operating on this business as usual. Um, the main. Countries as we perceive it that would be primarily under threat. Um Would be mexico canada and brazil because they're the main importing destinations For ferro scrap in particular and into the u. s Um, but because we've already this is the second tranche of 232 and I think I said 232 2. 0 So we've already had an iteration of this the implications of which didn't fully go away Um, so this should be a slightly. Um sort of slightly easier to digest because there are a lot of jurisdictions that are already Familiar. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Um, I do remember in 2018, the prices went up, as you say, um, that went up, um, incredibly well, uh, it was very positive, but then there was pushback from the manufacturers because all of a sudden, you know, you couldn't get in, um, uh, Quails and finished products from the rest of the world. Therefore, the domestic mills were able to push up their pricing. Then manufacturers pushed back after a while and they started, they realized they had to start dropping the prices again. So there was this climate. If you look at the graph, you'll see a really aggressive climb, but then it comes off quite a bit. You're saying we won't necessarily get that climb this time. There will be maybe gradual, but not as drastic as last time. So then there obviously wouldn't be a huge drop off either. I'm not necessarily saying that there won't be a similar, um, ascension in the prices. I think it will just be less of a sticker shock factor because this, and I'm not just necessarily talking about domestically within the U. S. Um, I'm talking about other regions that had typically previously sent material this way. Um, they were very cautious. On the broker side, in particular, when the first set of 232 was levied, there was a lot more uncertainty. And because of the lead time, pun fully intended, that people had time to sort of digest the potential impact of those tariffs, people that had previously been exporting material to the U. S. sort of sloped their role. They weren't sending material as much in the lead up. And I think there was a consideration on the broker side that nobody wanted, you know, seaborne steel units to get caught up and then have to pay, you know, get caught upside down on their deals and, and, you know, not be able to not know what was going to happen to their units. Um, there's every potential for market prices to climb. And that's what, you know, this is designed to do. Um, it's to design to shore up domestic production. Um, but I think it's more in terms of, you know, the people have time and we've been through this once before we, you know, it's, it's possibly easier to manage this time because we've seen what's gone before. Yeah, so I mean, if we think most of our listeners are the metal recyclers and the melters, but on the metal recycling side, what is there that, you know, the metal recyclers should be worried about right now? Is there anything that might be coming down the line that we like? This could have a real negative effect on us. Is there anything you can see? From a recycler's perspective, domestically, um, it's going to be theoretically great. There'll be more inland selling opportunities. Um, if we again look back at 2018, mills were making so much margin back at that time. We saw a lot of expansions. Um, Big River, for example, in the interim, has gone from one to three furnaces. Sinton, um, SDI's Corpus Christi outfit was built with money. You know, made in that interim period, um, we, and we had expansions Northstar, for example, so, you know, a lot of capacity came on. They were speaking to someone earlier on that said that they were eating caviar at the mill, so they were making a huge amount of money. We saw a lot of capacity come online with that capacity. You know, we haven't really the last. Mill production estimate was about 75 percent last time we saw these tariffs production went up to 80 percent We don't know verbatim how much scrap demand that translates into but it's an increase that signals an increase so domestically There's not Theoretically a threat it gives people greater opportunity to sell but if you look at export Sellers that export material, um, 25 percent of the U. S. ferrous scrap market is predicated on export. Um, just because material may not be able to come into the U. S. doesn't mean other markets won't be able to take advantage of flows of redirected material. For example, if broadband tariffs do hit Canada, um, and, you know, the U. S. imports the majority of its ferrous scrap from Canada, um, Even though it's a relatively small percentage in terms of the amount used, there's nothing to say that that material can't be shipped elsewhere. Turkey, for example, which buys a huge amount of ferrous scrap from the US on a cargo basis, that material is redirected. That hits exporters, for example, US East Coast exporters, who could sell their material inland or they could export it. It takes the wind out of their sails in other markets. Canada, again, to give a good example, a lot of hot rolled coil and scrap comes into the Midwest, which is our benchmark, fairest market from Canada. That is going to cause problems for people that are used to those trade flows. But if they start redirecting their material, what does that mean for, you know, competition for U. S. export? I think we spoke previously about, you know, 25 percent doesn't make up the majority. Of the U. S. Vera scrap market, but it's a significant portion. So, you know, there's a chance to win domestically But geographically depending on where sellers are based it could harm their business on an export basis So there are lots of facets to this I think I mean, I think if you look at opportunities, um, I think they're in abundance. I think, you know, people could be looking to melt their own material. Now people could be looking to, um, you know, grow their domestic market. And if you were exporting, well, now you might be able to find a domestic market, which can actually compete with your exports, even though you are further away or closer to the ports, et cetera, because the geography will grow you. Cool. From, um, the catchment area where the domestic market is buying from. And that doesn't mean necessarily that they're opening up in different areas, but more about that. They need more volume. They need more material because the demand on their side will be greater. So you'd expect that domestic prices to carry on climbing. We've already seen it. So we expect that that will carry on. Then it's interesting for me is that I always look at what's happening internationally, because if there isn't a market to sell your finished products. into the U. S. Surely there's less demand. Surely the prices start dropping on export. Export. I, I first, when I first, I've got a real soft spot for export. When I first started covering U. S. ferrous, that was my main preserve and I always keep a close eye on it. Interesting dichotomy that we've seen. We had the February ferrous trade, um, prices rose quite strongly domestically. The implications of that were twofold. A lot of it was based on tariff rhetoric and a lot of that was just. Based on supply and demand fundamentals. You know, mills were short essentially. What we saw on the export side, and there's a lot of interplay between the export markets and, and the domestic, and they, you know, at times when export is robust, domestic mills have to compete and vice versa. Based on that tariff bullishness and the shortness of material in the US, we saw East Coast, um, exporters increasing their cargo offers. And we got to the point where we didn't see a sale really for about 10 to 12 days on a deep sea basis, which is, you know, it was fairly unusual, but we were waiting for some clarity and at USC. East Coast exporters were incrementally raising their offers. I think they're still targeting above 360 for 80 20 on a bulk basis. And yet we haven't had a huge slew of Turkish mills that are vying for that material because rebar isn't performing particularly well. If we look at the rebar prices in Turkey, they're about 550 to 570. And historically that's not a great number. Um, so, you know, it's all very well and good that export is is bullish on the basis of how domestic Demand is expected to rise but turkey is typically the biggest exporter from the us and they're not really biting because Their market isn't performing. Um as well as Could necessarily be expected. After the earthquakes, if we go back a couple of years, they haven't really started rebuilding in earnest since then. Um, so there's, you know, things are just sort of, to use a very British phrase, they're sort of pootling along, but there's nothing fantastical happening on that side of the fence. And then if we bring in China, which somehow people always do, um, we can look at the fact that, you know, we may not be bringing in material from China into the U. S., but it's not stopping Turkey from importing huge amounts of, um, competitively priced Chinese or Malaysian, Southeast Asian billet, which is currently priced at a cost advantage to U. S. ferroscrap. So if we look at the latest billet sales that we heard, a couple of mills, I think we had 485 and from Malaysia and 470 CFR from China that's being negotiated by a couple of mills. Turkish Mills can take that material. It only costs them, it's a semi finished product, only costs them about 50 to roll that billet into rebar versus buying. uncompetitively priced Ferris scrap cargoes, smelting that material for 150 and then having to spend the extra, another 50 on top of that to roll it. So there are a lot of factors at play here. And I think domestically is where the gains will be made. I think there are losses to be made globally in these markets. On that basis, we this is, you know, the billet question. I've been harping on about billets for the last sort of six months This is something that we've been seeing a lot since the summer So the price implication that there is nothing new but it would potentially be exacerbated by um the tariffs So it's quite interesting. I'm i'm sitting here smirking because um, I love when you talk about You know, you have an example of the eastern the east coast is bullish on sales You It doesn't matter how, but I was always bullish on sales. I sold for the last 20 odd years. I've been trading internationally and I was always bullish. I always wanted higher than what's available, right? It doesn't really matter what you want. It's what you can sell for. So it's like they're bullish because the domestic prices are high. It means absolutely nothing to the international buyers. If it comes down to supply and demand. Can they buy it elsewhere? Is there is there a bullet available at a cheaper cost than what you can sell for domestically like That doesn't actually play a part in their thinking if they have a supply elsewhere So it doesn't matter how bullish you are on the east coast. Um, if it just doesn't make sense for the buyer you're not selling Absolutely. And I think talking about where can we get material elsewhere, we've heard, you know, the European steel sector is not performing particularly well at the moment. The ex EU cargoes, and we heard potentially of one being offered at 3. 50. There's a broad 5 differential in favor of U. S. material. So that's about 3. 55 for a U. S. cargo equivalent of 80 20, and that's, you know, 5 plus. About 4. 50 lower than the last deal, 5 plus less than what U. S. exporters want, want for their material. So when I first started in this, uh, job and I was sort of learning to how to quantify data and I was sort of saying, Oh, but so and so is bidding this and a very wise person said, well, you can bid what you want for material unless someone's willing to sell it to you, it means absolutely nothing. And that has stuck with me. Yeah. I used to look as a. As a, um, metal recycler running as a large scrap metal company, um, often people would reach out and be like, what, um, they try to buy something from me, say it's a bulk vessel and we used to sell quite a few of those a month and we'd be doing 30, 000 tons and they'd say, okay, what's your price? And as a seller, I'm never giving my price. So it's always like, well, what's your price? And there would often be, this is the first time doing business with somebody, there'd be this like standoff. But. I had my buyers already and I was already selling this material, but somebody's coming in to buy my material. And then they would be like, you have to give me a price first. And I would go, okay, a thousand dollars a time for HMS. And they'd be like, well, that's not reasonable. I was like, well, I'm just starting the negotiation. Where are you? Like you forced me to give you a price. I gave you a price. It isn't reasonable. We're not going to get to an answer close to that number, but now you have to give me a price. So. That's kind of like it. It's really all about supply and demand. It's about what is actually, um, going to be paid. What are they able to pay? What are they willing to pay? Um, so I think what the problem we're going to have on the global scene is that the domestic prices over the next three months are going to carry on increasing, but I can't see the export prices increasing. I'm just not sure unless there is this demand that I can't see if that demand comes through. Then I can understand how the export price would increase, but if there isn't going to be that demand I think there's going to be a huge differential between domestic and export and I think you might see that 75 increasing to something like 85 of the material in the u. s is actually kept domestically And I think that's perfectly valid. And I think the question is really, can the increased mill running rate, as you said before, if it hits 80 percent or it surpasses 80 percent with the levying of tariffs, Um, you know, can the increased production on the US side compensate for the amount of material, um, that would have otherwise been exported? We've seen recyclers, um, this month who were sort of, you know, we're still in a sort of limbo period, I would say. We're still in a 30 day negotiation period for broadband tariffs with, um, Um, mexico and canada. We're still in the very infancy of 2 3 2 2. 0 So we're still sort of on the precipice of what the impact will be Is there going to be enough of a um debate? Um, you know, how quickly is that going to happen? How robust is it going to be and is it going to offset? Some recyclers were already looking for inland opportunities, you know, in the last trade, um, before things were, were really clarified. Which is probably sensible and, you know, this doesn't just affect, it's not as easy as saying sort of import export. There are so many channels and ways in which that material moves and if it's not coming into the U. S., it has to go somewhere. in order for other jurisdictions to maintain their industry. So I think, you know, they're obviously there is, it's a multifaceted issue. Yeah. And I think just like how, um, the U S looks like a might become slightly more domestic. Um, you know, on my buddy platform, we've got a lot of, um, middle recyclers in Canada reaching out. Looking to now open up export markets that they didn't have before because we're a marketplace which introduces you trusted buyers So, um if you weren't necessary if you're in canada and you weren't exporting previously or majority of your material went into the u. s And those doors shut you needed to very quickly open up export markets for material that you hadn't exported before And we all know that when we're talking globally, trust is a massive, massive issue. So it's about kind of how do you do that overnight? And that was really tricky. So I think you're going to find a lot of that carrying on with Canada and Mexico, um, with them looking at where they can open export markets. I'm hoping export prices increase because then they don't suffer as much when the domestic price in the US goes up and they're still looking over the fence and can see these huge prices, but unfortunately they aren't able to get in. Of course they are at the moment. I'm just talking about if that was happening and a few weeks ago, it looked like they weren't going to be able to bring it in. Um, so that, that's going to be an interesting part as well. Um, if those markets have to move 100 percent on export. And I think if you, Canada, again, is a fantastic example of proximity, um, you know, if we look at Mexico and Canada, sort of North America, if we sort of consider everything as a sort of homogenous mass, is that the implications of trade with those countries are, it's a lot different to levying a 10 percent tax. tariff on China, for example, which has a huge economy and in my personal opinion, and you know, a lot of other people I've spoken to in the market as well, see that as more of an optical consideration. Sort of we, you know, China has a lot of countervailing and anti dumping duties. Um, they have a huge economy. A 10 percent tariff from the US is probably not going to cripple China in the way that it's going to affect Mexico and Canada, plus the fact that, you know, China's the largest, um, global steel producer and almost everything that they do is predicated domestically, um, they only really make forays into other markets when it's, um, particularly advantageous. I mean, you can't blame them. It's what everybody would and should do, commercially speaking. But I think it's a lot more sensitive when you're talking about your neighbors on the border. The Midwest, I think I've said already, you know, of the 70 million gross tons that the ISI estimates that U. S. mills utilize annually, and the ferroscrap import, um, is only about, I think 2024 is about 2. 9 million. So it's, it's a drop in the ocean if you say it like that, but also there are people that are operating independent, um, companies that are sending that material into the Midwest, into the U S and they're geographically. placed advantageously. Mills have long standing relationships with the, these companies. I think it's rather than sort of just considering the bottom line, I think the concern from a lot of industry bodies, I know Rima for example, sent out a press release where they said that they were concerned for the impact of North American manufacturing based on the 11. 3 billion dollars worth of recycled materials that cross all of those borders on an annual basis. So I think, yeah, it's a bit. There are implications that are very practical and there's a human element to this as well that you can't really negate of course Absolutely. Um, so here's here's another aspect which I don't think we've spoken about yet retaliatory tariffs now We spoke about the the exporters in the u. s. Which you said is 25 percent of the market the u. s market Maybe that's going to drop to 20%. We don't know. Um, but there's still a massive amount of volume leaving the US. We're talking about scrap metal now. Now, if there's retaliatory tariffs, and you touched on it earlier, that nobody wants to have material on the water. And the tariff comes in play because when a 20 percent tariff comes in play, and you've already bought that material and committed to a price or even paid for it, and it arrives on the other side, you're paying that tariff, whether you like it or not. So there's definitely been that uncertainty in the market over the last three or four weeks. I've noticed that, um, through the platform. Is there any hint of that coming in? Have you heard anything that it might come in? And what sort of effect could it could happen? Or what sort of effect could we have if it does come into play? So if you look at, um, if we're looking at deep sea export, Turkey's already subject to 25 percent tariffs on exports to the US, so there's nothing, you know, there's I think I mentioned previously, there are a lot of jurisdictions that are already, this is the status quo for them. So I think there's a lot of a sense that, you know, there won't be a retaliatory, you know, if there's going to be retaliation from a lot of these countries that are already subject to You've seen it before. We would have seen it. Um, quotas is where it will become particularly interesting because, you know, a lot of countries have quotas of material that they can send to the US up to this point. What happens with the quotas? I believe, and don't quote me on this, that one of the reasons that the sort of 2322. 0 was having its advent was that jurisdictions had been potentially abusing quotas and their ability to send material. I think Really, where we would look for retaliation, China have already levied a 10 percent retaliatory tariff on the U. S. after the 1st of February announcement, that's, you know, we've accepted that. I don't think the implications are going to be huge, considering that we don't export a huge amount of materials, like less than a cargo's worth every month we see on a ferrous basis go to China. Yeah, but there's a huge amount of non ferrous that goes in there, right? So you're talking purely on the ferrous side? On the non ferrous there is a lot. Yes, but I mean, we don't, we wouldn't necessarily, we're a net exporter of, of all materials. So we send a lot of material, like Southeast Asia for non ferrous, for example, is a huge market for the US, um, on a containerized basis. Um, so I think we're not actually anticipating retaliatory tariffs. And I think if we look at. The broadband tariffs, which I'm referring now, I do think that the negotiations with Mexico and Canada will ultimately be successful. It's my personal belief that the announcement of those broadband, potential broadband tariffs was more of a negotiating strategy. We've discussed it on the team and we're not anticipating anything. We anticipate a resolution. With Mexico and Canada, but obviously I'm not part of the administration. So I can't say verbatim, but that's what we are anticipating And I may be touching on strategies Are there any other strategies you might think that come into play or that people are considering or should be considering in general? as a metal recycler I Think I mentioned earlier on that there's sort of More opportunity domestically that we'd expect from the tariffs, a very obvious kind of goes without saying, um, but something that I was discussing with a member of my team earlier on was sort of potential, um, seasonality implications for seasonality and selling opportunities. So if we take, um, September and October, for example. typical outage seasons for U. S. mills. How is the selling pattern going to look if we're expecting a huge ramp up in demand for, for scrap, um, based on the fact that, theoretically, steel mill utilization might hit 80%, might surpass 80%. How will that translate? You know, how, how will the seasonal patterns, um, that people are used to in their sort of selling year, notwithstanding sort of black swan events. You know, what will happen there? Will there be greater opportunity? Um, you know, on a calendar basis, if mills are running better, if we're, you know, headed for a lot of rampant demand, how is that going to shape things? I think that's just something that's worth thinking about. And, um, who do you foresee to be the real winners? And who do you think will be the real losers? throughout this process and why? Well, the, again, the notion of a protectionist tariff against the U. S. would theoretically should position the U. S. to strengthen its steel making, um, domestically and should add additional opportunity for U. S. scrap sellers. But I think we've already established that that's a very double edged sword if it's creating domestic selling opportunity, then that selling opportunity has to at least equal, if not surpass export selling opportunity. So the U S from that perspective, I think the main jurisdictions at risk are Canada and Mexico. I know there's a lot of concern for, um, producers. Um and sellers there that you know, it's going to take a lot it's going to have a far reaching impact for its manufacturing industry, but then if you do Look at mexico, for example, it's a huge growth market. Um, I think some of our latest figures suggest that their automotive Production is set to expand by something, you know 25 percent or so in the relatively near term. We're seeing lots of growth in their domestic market, which would theoretically create better domestic, um, appetite for material. So there are, you know, there's more than one way to skin a cat. And through all of this, do you think there's any sort of substantial, um, Trading lanes shifting. Like, do you think there will be, um, new routes that people are going to go to? Is there anything that's really changing, um, severely? Like, for example, you know, there's a lot that's coming out of Europe as well at the moment. Certain things are being banned. There's more regulations coming in place every day. People now have to, um, buyers, melters need to now get that material from other places. Do you see a shift at all in the trading lanes? Um, I think we will, depending on the outcome of, you know, looking at the broadband tariffs, seeing what happens in the next sort of two weeks or so. Um, I think touching on price again, a very wise contact of mine once told me when I was trying to assess the trading patterns of, you know, X, Y, Z and where material is exported and he, as an exporter himself, he just said, look, where the price is right. That's where I will send the material. Um, so I think there's always a sense that, you know, if there's demand globally for a material, the U. S. could send it there. Um, I don't think the U. S. ferrous market wants to give up its, um, You know, it's sort of backhanded in a way, isn't it? So like you can't send material there, but 25 percent of my market is export. So I'm still going to send material to you. And these tariffs might inadvertently kill some of that competition. So, you know, we could, we could see things changing. I think it's a bit premature to say how those. New patterns may establish, but those things are evolving all the time on the basis of need and other jurisdictions, you know, we don't send a huge amount of material to Europe, for example, but they send a lot of material to Turkey, and that's a mutual beneficiary of shipments. So that's a very long winded way of saying I think it's a bit too early to tell, but we can let's touch base in a month. Let's touch base in a month's time and see how inaccurate my predictions were. Well, look, I think by the time we all get to, um, San Diego for the, um, big large huge, the show, the remake event. Um, I think we're going to know a lot more by then we're talking about May. So that buys us a bit of time as well. Luckily there's a whole bunch of events before then, but by the time we get there, I think, uh, I think we'll know a lot more as well. Yeah, I'm looking forward to, um, we should have a live reaction podcast on site and get people to come in and let you know just how good or bad their predictions were. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So Ames, this has been lots of fun. It's been very informative. I've really enjoyed this time, but we want to just get to know you a little bit better like we do at the end of every episode. So that, um, when you are at the Remake event and people walk past you they can go, Oh, it's my favorite book as well, or, um, that quote really insulted me. So, on that note, Um, what's your, uh, favorite TV show or movie? Uh, TV show is easy. I don't know if you've heard of this. I know you like your British comedy. So, uh, TV show called the Vicar of Diddley. It's just, it's, it is, it's, I mean, I'm aging myself. It's from the 90s. It's a Richard Curtis TV program. So he's famous for Love Actually, um, and all of those, those programs, but it's just a, a very, Clean, light hearted show about a provincial vicar. Um, and the trials and tribulations of British village life. Um, to which I can thoroughly relate. So, yeah, that's my number one favourite. And that's my go to if I'm feeling homesick. I'll put The Vicar of Tivoli on. That's cool. Did you have a favourite movie as well? Or do you just want to tell a series? Um, I Honestly, I'm going to say Bridget Jones. Because the new film has come I mean, she's, um, a bit hopeless. And, you know, a very British two things that I completely identify with. So I know they have the new ones just come out and I haven't seen it yet. So I'm going to go with the British, the Bridget Jones series. Have you got a favorite place to visit? Um, controversially, Russia. I speak the language, I lived there in my early twenties. Um, aside from all the political turmoil, it's an incredibly beautiful country, um, with a rich culture and history. So, I haven't been there for a long time for obvious reasons, but that's always been, um, somewhere that I enjoy. Visiting. Nice. And I think, I know it's probably going to ruffle a few feathers with that answer, but that's purely based on history and, and culture and friends I, I have there. Now that's cool. Um, have you got a favorite book? Uh, yes. Uh, The Master and Margarita by, um, Mikhail Bulgakov. So it's a margarita. Are we talking about cocktail or pizza? No, we're talking about neither. We're talking about a gun toting black cat and some I think 1960s socialist realism. Uh, fantastically ludicrous, wonderful novel. Highly recommend. Yeah, cool. I think I might have to look that one up. And to finish up, every scrap metal operator, metal recycler has a favorite quote. What's yours? Oh, I, I don't know if it's a quote, but I would say what is it? It's a bit of a joke. What's a, um, what's every scrap dealer's least favorite three words? I don't know. It's TBD. And I know if anyone attended my colleague, Lisa Gordon's, um, excellent presentation in Houston, we always, um, we, you know, we'll always have a joke about that. Okay. Now I need you to quickly explain that for people that aren't in the US that don't know what TBD is. So I was at the talk and I didn't know what it was about. So TBD stands for to be determined. And there's a wonderful thing. So obviously we're, we're the benchmark, um, price for, for ferrous scrap in the, in the United States. If you basically don't want to down tools and lose lots of money in the 10 days or so that domestic, um, scrap is bought every single month. You will enter into a TBD arrangement with a mill, um, and they will allow you to keep shipping so you don't end up paying for your workers to sort of sit around twiddling their thumbs, um, And as such a time as the price is determined, and you know obviously a lot of people use our prices in their contracts, then the mill will honor the payment and you can keep shipping without having to worry about wasting money on logistics and it won't slow your operation down. But obviously with a price that's predicated on any assessment, um, from a third party it sometimes gets a little bit hairy if the mill doesn't fully anticipate the payment. The direction of the market. So yeah, that's why TBD makes everybody a little bit nervous. Yeah, yeah, completely. Um, it was eyeopening for me. Commercially makes no sense. Practically makes a lot of sense, right? I think George Adams was sitting in the crowd at the time. And, and I think Lisa had said, um, could you stop, you know, whatever it was. Could you stop? And he's like, absolutely not. The material has to keep flowing. I can't stop my yard from, from, um, selling material. I just couldn't catch up. Um, if I did. But yeah, to sell as an unknown price for the first 10 days, that's a third of the month you're selling an unknown price. So that was all very new to me, but, uh, Well, I, I recall in one of our lovely panels, um, I was fortunate enough to, to moderate one of your panels, um, during our most recent conference. And I think we had a conversation about trust and, you know, you were talking to a guy that. You know, the lovely Tyler who works for Rivian and you were saying, you know, do I trust you to, to handle my material? And that's when, you know, trust and good, solid business relationships come into play. No, that wasn't to handle your material. He, he was, um, OEM. So he had, um, he was a manufacturer. And he had off cut metal. I would have been the middle of cycling the story. He wanted to know who I sold it to so they could have this whole cradle to grave. And I was like, Um, your company is, you know, owned by Jeff Bezos. I'm not quite sure if I'm going to go and, and you previously worked for Elon Musk. I'm not sure I'm going to tell you who is buying my material. And do you think I'm going to believe that you're not going to go direct? Like, unfortunately that's where it became difficult. No, I totally understand that they're two completely different instances, but it's just highlights how important trust is. You know, business is all about people at the end of the day. If you, you'll only do business with people that you want to do business with. So there you go, trust, but yeah, the T in TBD doesn't stand for trust. Unfortunately. Yeah, yeah, exactly. On that note, um, Amy, this has been lots of fun. Thank you so much for joining us for the first episode of the season. Cause we wanted to kick off with, um, what's, what's everybody's thinking about right now. So thank you for kicking us off season four. It's my pleasure. Thank you so much for having me. Thanks, Sam. Cheers.
